安融（香港）評級確認法蘭西共和國“AA-”長期外幣主權信用等級；展望:穩定
安融（香港）評級確認法蘭西共和國“AA-”長期外幣主權信用等級；展望:穩定
05 12 2024
2024年12月5日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認法蘭西共和國（簡稱“法国”）的長期外幣主權信用等級為“AA-”，展望為“穩定”。
評級結果肯定了法國的經濟體量龐大、經濟發達程度很高、政治體制健全且法律制度完善以及法國在歐盟較強的話語權，同時也關注了法國財政赤字率進一步走擴、政府債務規模攀升、政局及社會穩定性出現一定動搖、外債壓力大可能對評級結果造成影響。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
法國經濟體量龐大且經濟結構十分多元，多個行業發展水準居於世界前列，經濟發達程度很高。
法國政治體制健全且法律制度完善，在歐盟具有較高話語權。
政府強有力的改革對經濟發展起到較大的支撐作用，經濟具有較強韌性。
關注
法國財政赤字率不斷走擴，政府債務規模不斷攀升。
退休改革計畫和其他社會事件引發的大規模騷亂折射出法國政府與民眾矛盾深刻，社會穩定性出現動搖。
法國外債壓力較大，其中短期外債償付壓力較為突出。
評級展望
法國經濟增速有望持續復蘇，通脹壓力或得到有效控制，政局穩定性有望得到修復。綜合考慮，安融評級授予法國的信用評級展望為稳定。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月5日
若欲獲取進一步的資訊，敬請訪問www.arrating.com
相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
免責條款
本次評級依據評級對象已經正式對外公佈的資訊，相關資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性由評級對象及其資訊發佈方負責。安融(香港)評級按照相關性、及時性、可靠性的原則對評級資訊進行了審慎分析，但對上述資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性不作任何保證。評級結果未考慮無法獲取的可能對信用等級有重要影響的非公開資料。
本報告對評級對象信用狀況的任何表述和判斷僅作為相關決策參考之用，並不意味著安融(香港)評級實質性建議任何使用者據本報告採取投資、借貸和交易等行為，也不能作為使用者購買、出售或持有相關金融產品的依據。在任何情況下，安融(香港)評級、安融(香港)評級董事、股東、雇員、代表不對任何投資者（包括機構投資者和個人投資者）使用本報告所表述的安融(香港)評級的分析結果而出現的任何損害、開支、費用或損失承擔任何責任，亦不對被評對象或其發行人使用本報告或將本報告提供給其他方所產生的任何後果承擔任何責任。
ARHK Affirms ‘AA-’ International Rating to The French Republic, Outlook Stable
5 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 5, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA-’ to The French Republic (hereinafter referred to as ‘French’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm France's large economic scale, high level of economic development, sound political system, and well-established legal system, as well as France's strong voice within the European Union. It also notes about the further expansion of France's fiscal deficit ratio, the rising scale of government debt, potential instability in political and social stability, and the significant external debt pressure that may affect the rating result.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
France has a large economic scale and a highly diversified economic structure, with several industries leading globally in terms of development level and a high degree of economic development.
France has a sound political system and a well-established legal system, with a significant voice in European Union.
Strong government reforms have significantly supported economic development, and the economy is highly resilient.
Weaknesses
France's fiscal deficit ratio continues to expand, and government debt levels continue to rise.
The pension reform plan and other social events have triggered large-scale unrest, reflecting deep-seated conflicts between the French government and the public, leading to potential instability in social stability.
France faces significant external debt pressure, particularly with short-term external debt repayment pressure being prominent.
RATING OUTLOOK
France's economic growth rate is expected to continue recovering, inflation pressure may be effectively controlled, and political stability is expected to be restored. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of France.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 5 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.