安融（香港）評級確認巴西聯邦共和國“BB”長期外幣主權信用等級；展望:穩定
安融（香港）評級確認巴西聯邦共和國“BB”長期外幣主權信用等級；展望:穩定
30 12 2024
2024年12月30日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認巴西聯邦共和國（簡稱“巴西”）的長期外幣主權信用等級為“BB”，展望為“穩定”。
評級結果肯定了巴西經濟的韌性、農業部門的強勁表現和國內消費的持續擴張，經常帳戶收窄、境外直投回升，對外償付能力強；同時也關注到巴西經濟實力較弱，近年來經濟增速放緩且波動較大；巴西財政改革推進的難度較大，債務的可持續性有待關注；巴西政府效率較低，法制建設亟待完善，政府面臨改革及穩定性等諸多挑戰等風險因素。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
巴西經濟體量較大，農業部門表現強勁。國內消費持續擴張。
巴西財政赤字和債務水準自高位回落，外部風險敞口較小。
淨出口帶動巴西經常帳戶赤字收窄，大量的外匯儲備及境外直接投資為對外償付提供支撐。
關注
巴西經濟實力較弱，近年來經濟增速放緩且波動較大。
巴西財政改革推進的難度較大，債務的可持續性有待關注。
巴西政府效率較低，法制建設亟待完善，政府面臨改革及穩定性等諸多挑戰。
評級展望
預計巴西財政表現將穩步改善，債務風險整體可控。綜合考慮，安融（香港）授予巴西的信用評級展望為穩定。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月30日
若欲獲取進一步的資訊，敬請訪問www.arrating.com
相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
免責條款
本次評級依據評級對象已經正式對外公佈的資訊，相關資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性由評級對象及其資訊發佈方負責。安融(香港)評級按照相關性、及時性、可靠性的原則對評級資訊進行了審慎分析，但對上述資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性不作任何保證。評級結果未考慮無法獲取的可能對信用等級有重要影響的非公開資料。
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ARHK Affirms ‘BB’ International Rating to The Federative Republic of Brazil, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘BB’ to The Federative Republic of Brazil (hereinafter referred to as ‘Brazil’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm the resilience of Brazil's economy, the strong performance of the agricultural sector, and the continuous expansion of domestic consumption, narrowing current account deficit, recovery of foreign direct investment, and strong external repayment ability; However, it notes concerns about Brazil's relatively weak economic strength, recent slowdown, and significant volatility in economic growth. The challenges in advancing fiscal reforms, the need for sustainable debt management, low government efficiency, the necessity for improved rule of law, and numerous challenges related to reform and stability are also acknowledged.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Brazil has a large economy, with a strong performance in the agricultural sector. Domestic consumption continues to expand.
Brazil's fiscal deficit and debt levels have fallen from high levels, with relatively low exposure to external risks.
Net exports drive the narrowing of Brazil's current account deficit, and a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment provide support for external repayment.
Weaknesses
Brazil's economic strength is relatively weak, with a slowdown and significant volatility in economic growth in recent years.
The difficulty of advancing fiscal reforms in Brazil is high, and the sustainability of debt needs attention.
Brazil's government efficiency is low, the rule of law construction needs improvement, and the government faces many challenges such as reform and stability.
RATING OUTLOOK
It is expected that Brazil's fiscal performance will steadily improve, and overall debt risk is controllable. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of Brazil.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.