安融（香港）評級確認德意志聯邦共和國“AA+”國際評級；展望:負面
安融（香港）評級確認德意志聯邦共和國“AA+”國際評級；展望:負面
30 12 2024
2024年12月30日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認德意志聯邦共和國（簡稱“德國”）的長期外幣主權信用等級為“AA+”，展望為“負面”。
評級結果肯定了德意志聯邦共和國的德國經濟體量處於世界領先水準，產業多元，且國民收入很高；歐盟統一的市場使德國經常賬戶順差規模很大，對外償付實力很強。同時也關注到德國經濟受到地緣政治格局變動的衝擊，造成能源成本的上升和供應鏈的中斷等風險。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
德國經濟體量處於世界領先水準，產業多元，且國民收入很高。
歐盟統一的市場使德國經常賬戶順差規模很大，對外償付實力很強。
關注
德國經濟受到地緣政治格局變動的衝擊，造成能源成本的上升和供應鏈的中斷。
評級展望
俄烏衝突使得德國地緣政治風險有所抬升，對德國的汽車、機械製造、化工等傳統優勢製造業造成較大衝擊。綜合考慮，安融（香港）評級授予德國的信用評級展望為負面。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月30日
若欲獲取進一步的資訊，敬請訪問www.arrating.com
相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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本次評級依據評級對象已經正式對外公佈的資訊，相關資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性由評級對象及其資訊發佈方負責。安融(香港)評級按照相關性、及時性、可靠性的原則對評級資訊進行了審慎分析，但對上述資訊的合法性、真實性、完整性、準確性和及時性不作任何保證。評級結果未考慮無法獲取的可能對信用等級有重要影響的非公開資料。
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ARHK Affirms ‘AA+’ International Rating to The Federal Republic of Germany, Outlook Negative
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA+’ to The Federal Republic of Germany (hereinafter referred to as ‘Germany’) with a negative outlook.
The rating results confirm
Germany’s economic volume ranking among the world’s leading countries, with diverse industries and high levels of national income. The unified European Union market has contributed to Germany’s substantial current account surplus, strengthening its external repayment capacity. However, Germany’s rating highlights concerns regarding the risks of increasing energy costs and disruptions in supply chains, as Germany’s economy has been impacted by shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Germany’s economic volume ranks among the world’s leading countries, with diverse industries and high levels of national income.
The unified European Union market has contributed to Germany’s substantial current account surplus, strengthening its external repayment capacity.
Weaknesses
Germany’s economy has been impacted by shifts in the geopolitical landscape, resulting in increased energy costs and supply chain disruptions.
RATING OUTLOOK
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has heightened Germany’s geopolitical risks, causing significant impacts on its traditional advantageous manufacturing sectors, such as automotive, machinery, and chemical engineering. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a negative outlook to the credit rating of Germany.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.