安融（香港）評級確認中華人民共和國“AA+”國際評級；展望:穩定；2024年歐元主權債券“AA+”
安融（香港）評級確認中華人民共和國“AA+”國際評級；展望:穩定；2024年歐元主權債券“AA+”
30 12 2024
2024年12月30日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認中華人民共和國（簡稱“中國”）的長期外幣主權信用等級為AA+，評級展望為穩定，中華人民共和國2024年歐元主權債券（簡稱“中國歐元債”）信用等級爲AA+。
評級結果肯定了中國經濟繼續保持增長，經濟體量處於世界前列水準；中國利用國際金融組織和外國政府獲得多方的信用借貸支持；人民幣連續十個月成爲全球第四位支付貨幣。同時也關注了2022財年和2023年財年，政府債務規模持續擴大，政府債務增長率高於GDP增長率，政府債務負擔逐年增加。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
2023年，中國經濟繼續保持增長，經濟體量處於世界前列水準。
截至2023年末，中國利用國際金融組織和外國政府貸款累計承諾額約1,851.16億美元，獲得多方的信用借貸支持。
人民幣連續十個月成爲全球第四位支付貨幣。
關注
2022財年和2023年財年，政府債務規模持續擴大，政府債務增長率高於GDP增長率，政府債務負擔逐年增加。
評級展望
中國的赤字率仍有一定的上升空間，外匯儲備較為充裕降低了債務違約風險，維持較大規模的貿易順差。綜合考慮，安融評級授予中國的信用評級展望為穩定。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月30日
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相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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ARHK Affirms ‘AA+’ International Rating to the People’s Republic of China’s 2024 EUR Sovereign Bond, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA+’ to the People’s Republic of China’s EUR Sovereign Bond in 2024, with a stable outlook.
The China EUR Bond’s rating is based on China’s continued economic growth, with its economic volume ranking among the largest in the world. China obtained multiple credit loan support from international financial organizations and foreign governments. As a sovereign country, China holds the power to independently issue and manage its currency. RMB has ranked as the world’s fourth most-used currency for payment for ten consecutive months. However, the rating also highlights concerns that in the 2022 fiscal year and 2023 fiscal year, government debt continued to expand, and the growth rate of government debt surpassed the GDP growth rate, leading to an increasing debt burden year by year.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
In 2023, China’s economy continued to grow, maintaining its economic volume among the largest in the world.
By the end of 2023, China had obtained a cumulative loan commitment of approximately 185.116 billion USD from international financial organizations and foreign governments, receiving support from multiple credit lending sources.
As a sovereign country, China holds the power to independently issue and manage its currency. RMB has ranked as the world’s fourth most-used currency for payment for ten consecutive months.
Weaknesses
In the 2022 fiscal year and 2023 fiscal year, government debt continued to expand, and the growth rate of government debt surpassed the GDP growth rate, leading to an increasing debt burden year by year.
RATING OUTLOOK
China’s deficit ratio still has some room for increase. Substantial foreign exchange reserves reduce the risk of debt default, maintaining a significant trade surplus. Considering all these factors, ARHK has assigned a stable credit rating outlook to China.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.