安融（香港）評級確認南非共和国“BB+”國際評級；展望:稳定
安融（香港）評級確認南非共和国“BB+”國際評級；展望:稳定
30 12 2024
2024年12月30日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認南非共和國（簡稱“南非”）的長期主體評級為“BB+”，展望為“穩定”。
評級結果肯定了南非有較為成熟的資本市場，其礦產資源出口改善了經常帳戶赤字；同時也關注到南非經濟增長乏力，超預期通脹和高額財政赤字使得其抵禦外部風險能力較弱。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
成熟的金融市場和金融機構能夠為經濟運行和融資提供緩衝作用；
豐富的礦產資源儲備及出口能緩解經常帳戶赤字；
整體經濟的外幣負債比例較低，外債結構較為合理，對外償付風險可控。
關注
南非的經濟增速長期處於低位，主要由於高失業率、結構性改革滯後、以及能源短缺等問題；
南非的債務水準和財政赤字在新興市場國家中處於較高水準。財政赤字主要源于高福利支出和國有企業補貼；
南非的高失業率和貧富差距導致社會矛盾加劇，犯罪率上升。
評級展望
預計南非經濟將穩步緩慢增長，系統風險較低。綜合考慮，安融（香港）評級給予南非的信用評級展望為穩定。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月30日
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相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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ARHK Affirms ‘BB+’ International Rating to The Republic of South Africa, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘BB+’ to The Republic of South Africa (hereinafter referred to as ‘South Africa’), with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm that South Africa has a relatively mature capital market. Its mineral resource exports have contributed to an improvement in the current account deficit. The rating also highlights concerns regarding weak economic growth, unexpectedly high inflation, and a large fiscal deficit, which have weakened its capacity to withstand external risks.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
The mature financial markets and institutions provide a buffer for economic operations and financing.
Abundant mineral resource reserves and exports help mitigate the current account deficit.
The government and overall economy have a relatively low proportion of foreign currency-denominated debt, with a reasonable external debt structure and manageable external repayment risks.
Weaknesses
South Africa’s long-term economic growth has been chronically low, mainly due to issues such as the high unemployment rate, delays in structural reforms, and energy shortages.
South Africa’s debt levels and fiscal deficit are relatively high among emerging market countries. Fiscal deficits mainly resulted from high welfare expenditures and state-owned enterprise subsidies.
South Africa’s high unemployment rate and significant wealth inequality have exacerbated social tensions and increased crime rates.
RATING OUTLOOK
South Africa’s economy is expected to experience gradual and slow growth with low systemic risk. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of South Africa.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.