安融（香港）評級確認日本国“A+”國際評級；展望:稳定
安融（香港）評級確認日本国“A+”國際評級；展望:稳定
30 12 2024
2024年12月30日，中國香港。安融（香港）評級確認日本國（簡稱“日本”）的長期主體評級為“A+”，展望為“穩定”。
評級結果肯定了日本經濟增長穩健，經濟和金融環境較為穩健，且受惠於長期的政治穩定和強有力的政策支持，特別是日本央行的寬鬆政策；同時也關注到日本的財政赤字和極高的債務水準是其經濟增長的不穩定因素。
關鍵評級觀點
優勢
日本經濟規模很大，經濟增長穩健且經濟增長潛力較大；
日本較強的國內融資基礎和較高的儲蓄率有助於保持財政穩定；
日本政治和金融環境的穩定性較強，有利於經濟穩定增長。
關注
人口老齡化是日本最大的長期風險因素。隨著老齡人口的增加，日本勞動力數量持續減少，對經濟增長潛力和消費需求構成壓力；
日本的債務占GDP比率高居全球首位，而財政赤字的可持續性是日本經濟的長期隱患；
日本作為出口導向型經濟體，對全球市場高度依賴。若全球經濟增長放緩、貿易保護主義抬頭或供應鏈中斷，可能對日本的出口和整體經濟增長構成不利影響。
評級展望
預計日本經濟將穩步增長，經濟的系統風險較低。綜合考慮，安融（香港）評級給予日本的信用評級展望為穩定。
注：
1、上述評級均為主動評級。
2、本文譯自英文版新聞稿。若有分歧，以英文版為准。
專案組組員
林芮礽，分析師
評審委員會主任
胡超
Huchao@arrating.com
媒體聯繫
complaints@arrating.com
評級服務聯繫
林芮礽
相關信用評級委員會召開日期：2024年12月30日
若欲獲取進一步的資訊，敬請訪問www.arrating.com
相關的評級方法和模型
《主權信用評級方法和模型》（2024年11月28日）
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ARHK Affirms ‘A+’ International Rating to Japan, Outlook Stable
30 December 2024
Hong Kong, December 30, 2024. ARHK has affirmed an international scale long-term issuer credit rating of ‘A+’ to Japan with a stable outlook.
The rating results confirm Japan’s solid economic growth, relatively stable economic and financial environment, supported by long-term political stability and robust policy measures, particularly through the accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. The rating also highlights concerns regarding Japan’s fiscal deficit and extremely high debt levels, which are the significant factors affecting the stability of its economic growth.
KEY RATING PERSPECTIVES
Strengths
Japan has a large economic scale, solid economic growth, and high economic growth potential.
Japan’s robust domestic financing foundation and high savings rate contribute to maintaining fiscal stability.
Japan’s political and financial environments are stable, which promotes steady economic growth.
Weaknesses
The biggest long-term risk factor in Japan is population aging. As the aging population increases, the labor force in Japan continues to decline, placing significant pressure on the country’s economic growth potential and consumer demand.
Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, and the sustainability of its fiscal deficit remains a long-term risk for Japan’s economy.
As an export-oriented economy, Japan is highly dependent on global markets. Any slowdown in global economic growth, rise in trade protectionism or disruptions in supply chain may negatively affect Japan’s exports and overall economic growth.
RATING OUTLOOK
Japan’s economy is expected to achieve steady growth, with low systemic risk. Taking all factors into consideration, ARHK assigns a stable outlook to the credit rating of Japan.
NOTE:
1. The above ratings are all unsolicited credit ratings.
2. The Chinese version of this article is translated from the English version of the press release. In case of discrepancies, the English version shall prevail.
ANALYST CONTACTS
Analyst
Lam Yui Ying
Committee Chair
James Hu
Media Contact
Rating Services Contact
Lam Yui Ying
Date of Relevant Rating Committee: 30 December 2024
Additional information is available on www.arrating.com
Related Criteria
Sovereign Credit Rating Methods and Models (28 November 2024)
DISCLAIMER
This rating is based on information officially released to the public by the rated objects. The legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the relevant information are the responsibility of the rated objects and its information publishers. ARHK has conducted a prudent analysis of the rating information based on the principles of relevance, timeliness, and reliability, but does not guarantee the legality, authenticity, completeness, accuracy, and timeliness of the above information. The rating results did not take into account non-public information that may have a significant impact on the credit rating and could not be obtained.
Any statements and judgments regarding the credit status of the rated objects in this report are only for reference in relevant decision-making and do not imply that ARHK substantively recommends any user to invest, borrow or lend money, and trade based on this report, nor can they be used as a basis for users to purchase, sell, or hold related financial products. Under no circumstances shall ARHK, as well as its directors, shareholders, employees, or representatives be liable for any damages, expenses, costs, or losses incurred by any investor (including institutional and individual investors) as a result of using the analysis results presented in this report, nor shall they be liable for any consequences arising from the use of this report by the rated objects or their issuers or providing this report to other parties.